Gross Domestic Products - National Account 2009 - 2016

OVERVIEW OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA ECONOMY

PNG Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 2009 to 2016
GDP at Current Prices

Current Price GDP for 2016 is 65,038 million Kina, this is an increase of 4,899 million Kina or 8.1% from 2015 Current Price GDP.

Key contributing industries were:
• 1,121 million Kina or 10.7 % increase in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
• 1,317 million Kina or 29.0 % increase in Other Mining
• 426 million Kina or 9.0 % increase in Construction
• 529 million Kina or 9.1 % increase in Wholesale and Retail
• 448 million Kina or 12.3 % increase in Real Estate Activities
• 388 million Kina or 9.0 % increase in Administrative and Support Services Activities 

The main offset to this positive contribution was the Extraction of Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas with a fall of 314 million Kina or -3.1%.

GDP at Constant Price
Constant Price GDP for 2016 is 61,742 million Kina, this is an increase of 2,419 million Kina or 4.1 % from 2015 Constant Price GDP.

Key contributing industries were:
• 245 million Kina or 2.7 % increase in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
• 859 million Kina or 6.7 % increase in Extraction of Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas
• 928 million Kina or 17.4 % increase in Other Mining

FIGURE 1. GDP LEVELS 2009 to 2016

F01


The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in levels show a moderate increase in PNG’s economy from years 2009 to 2016 (See Figure 1). The GDP at Current Prices increased from 32.0 billion Kina in 2009 to 65.0 billion Kina in 2016, this is an increase of 33 billion Kina or an average annual growth of 10.8 % over the reporting period. Whereas GDP at Constant Prices increased by 22.3 billion Kina or an average growth of 6.7 %, from 39.4 billion Kina to 61.7 billion Kina, 2009 to 2016.

In 2013, the Current and Constant Price GDP figures are the same as the year 2013 is the base year for the calculation of Constant Price GDP estimates; thus, the Constant Price estimates are all in 2013 prices whereas the Current Price GDP is valued using the prices prevailing in the respective years.

FIGURE 2. PNG GDP GROWTH 2009 to 2016

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The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Current Price and Constant Price for PNG showed positive growth for all years (2009 to 2016). Despite the impact of the Global Financial Crisis in PNG’s economy in 2009, the Current Price GDP still showed positive growth (up 1.6%).

Current Price GDP growth is stronger than Constant Price GDP growth when prices are increasing. In the years 2009, 2012 and 2015, Constant Price GDP growth was stronger than Current Price GDP growth due to falling prices in the economy.

Current Price GDP in 2010 showed that the economy grew by 21.1 %, which is deemed to be the highest for this time period and was driven by the construction phase of the LNG project. Current Price GDP in 2014 showed that the economy grew by 19.7 % which was the result of the commencement of LNG production.

FIGURE 3. GDP PER CAPITA IN LEVELS, KINA, 2009 to 2016

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The level of GDP per capita has increased from 4,679 Kina in 2009 to 7,672 Kina in 2016 in Current Price GDP terms.

FIGURE 4. GDP PER CAPITA, PERCENTAGE (%), 2009 to 2016

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GDP per Capita level increased from 7,314 Kina in 2015 to 7,672 Kina in 2016, this equates to an average increase in GDP per Capita of 7.5 % per annum (in Current Prices). There was a decline in the GDP per Capita in 2009 (-1.5 %) which was an effect of the population (up 3.1%) growing faster than Current Price GDP (up 1.6%). However, in year 2010, PNG recorded its strongest GDP per Capita with an increase of 17.4 percent followed by 16.1% in 2014.

FIGURE 5. GVA GROWTH BY INSTITUTIONAL SECTORS, 2009 to 2016

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The graph above details the growth of four institutional sectors: Non-Financial Corporations, General Government, Financial Corporations and Households.

Non-Financial Corporations Sector recorded a growth of 7.9% in 2015 and 8.2% in 2016. The Non- Financial Sector highest recorded growth was 31.6% in 2010 due to strong growth in both Construction and Mining and Quarrying.

General Government Sector has shown moderate positive increases in time over the period (2009 to 2016). The strongest increase was 19.8 % in 2011.

The Financial Corporations Sector showed a decline in 2014 and 2015, due to new policies implemented by the Government to the commercial banks to restrict foreign exchange fees and explicit charges.

Household Sector has shown moderate positive increases in time over the period (2009 to 2016). However, 2015 reported a low increase of 3.7 % due to the impact of the drought.

FIGURE 6a. INSTITUTIONAL SECTOR SHARE, 2009 CURRENT PRICE

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FIGURE 6b. INSTITUTIONAL SECTOR SHARE, 2016 CURRENT PRICE

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Non-Financial Corporations Sector is the largest contributor in 2016 with a 57.5% share (Figure 6b). This is up from 52.0% share in 2009 (Figure 6a), the increase is due to growth in the Mining and Quarrying industry.

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Gross Domestic Products - National Accounts 2007-2014

Overview of Papua New Guinea Economy, 2007 to 2014

Key Features

GDP level

The level of current price GDP increased from 28.3 billion kina in 2007 to 56.6 billion Kina in 2014 while the constant price GDP increased from 37.0  million Kina in 2006 to 53.7 billion Kina in 2014. The current and constant price GDP figures are the same in 2013 as the year 2013 is the base year for the calculation of constant price GDP estimates; thus, the constant price estimates are all in 2013 prices whereas the current price GDP is valued using the prices prevailing in the respective years.

PNG GDP Constant and CurrentPNG GDP Growth

Aggregate GDP At Constant Purchasers’ Values

GDP at constant prices of 2013 grew by an average of 5.8 % over the years from 2007 to 2014. Basically, GDP at constant purchasers prices of 2013 were derived using single price deflation method where gross value added of all individual industries were deflated with appropriate price deflators. Real growth of aggregate GDP in 2010 was deemed to be the highest with 10.1 % which implies and signifies the peak level of production in teams of volume in any one year during the period from 2007 to 2014. The high growth of 12.5 % in 2014 was the impact of first production of the LNG in PNG. Moderate growths were reported for 2012 and 2013 with 4.7 % and 3.8 % respectively.

Over the period from 2006 to 2014, current price GDP increased by 121.7 % and constant price GDP increased by 56.3 %. The current price GDP increased at a greater rate than the constant price GDP as it includes both increases in volume and in prices, whereas constant price GDP only includes changes in the volume of goods and services produce in PNG. For example, in 2008, current price GDP decreased by 0.3 % (only volume increases). The difference between the two measures is prices which would suggest strong price increases in the PNG economy in 2008 of approximately 11.7 %.

For a more detailed description of current price GDP including level and growth by industry, please refer to 2006 – 2013 PNG National Accounts publication released on 23 March 2016.

GDP per Capita increased from 2007 level of K4,399 to K7,099 in 2014 (Figure 3), this equates to an average increase in GDP per capita of 7.3 percent per annum (in Current Prices). There was a decline in the GDP per Capita in 2009 (-1.5) which was an effect of the population (up 3.1%) growing faster than current GDP (up 1.6%). However in the following year 2010, there was a turn around and PNG recorded it’s strongest GDP per Capita with an increase of 17.4 percent.

per capita

Industry Share of GVA

Current Price Estimates
For the period 2007 to 2014, the three highest contributing industries were Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing, Mining & Quarrying and Wholesale & Retail Trade. These three industries together contribute nearly half of PNG’s GDP.

From 2009 to 2013, Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing sector was the highest contributor with Gross Value added (GVA) share of 22.4 percent in 2009, 20.2 percent in 2010, 19.7 in 2011, 20.0 in 2012, 20.0 in 2013 and 18.8 percent 2014. Mining and quarrying, on the other hand, was the highest contributor in 2007, 2008 and 2009 with 26.4 percent, 26.1 percent and 19.1 percent respectively. However, its’ contribution of Value Added fell in 2011 and continued the trend to 2013 where its share was 14.1 percent. In 2014 the industry took over the lead by a massive growth of 322.6% due to the production of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), value added to the industry by K5.4 billion. Wholesale and Retail Trade maintained its’ place as the third major contributor right throughout the period in review. Construction industry and Real Estate Activities followed the similar trends, See Tables 9 and 10 for details of the industry shares of Gross Value Added.

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pdfNational Accounts 2007-2014.pdf

 

Gross Domestic Products - National Accounts 2008-2015

Overview of PNG Economy, 2008 to 2015

Aggregate GDP at current prices

The GDP estimate s presented in this publication covers the period from 2008 to 2015. Over this period, the level of GDP increased from K 31.5 billion in 2008 to K 57.1 billion in 2015. This represents an average annual growth of 9.4%. GDP growth has slowed down at 0.7%, value of K 57.1 billion Kina in 2015 from 2014. Progressively, over the period from
2008 to 2015, overall PNG economy experienced positive economic growth annually with a highest increase of 21.1% in 2010, followed by 18.9% in 2014, 11.3% in 2008, and 10.0% in 2011. The lowest increase was in 2015 with 0.7%.

The overall lower growth of 0.7 % in 2015 is attributed to a number of notable adverse events which subsided and affected aggregate production of goods and services across sectors particularly households, non-financial corporations and general government, even though it was the first year of full production of PNG LNG project.

  • El Nino drought affected half of the agricultural food production in the highlands region and part of mining in which OK Tedi mines was temporary closed due to low water level of the Fly river,
  • Temporary closure of Pogera mines due to shutdown of mill processing plant,
  • Temporary closure of Napa Napa oil refinery, and
  • Further declines in international prices of major commodities.

Agriculture sector was badly affected involving both subsistence and market production of agricultural commodities, timber & logs, and marine products for own consumption, domestic sales or for exports. This sector accounted for 19.3% of GDP in 2015 which continually supports more than 80% of the population particularly the rural population. The forestry industry has grown over the years with about 40% of the country is covered with timber rich trees, and a domestic woodworking industry has been slow to develop. Fish exports are confined primarily to shrimp, although fishing boats of other nations catch tuna in Papua New Guinea waters.

constant and current

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Aggregate GDP At Constant Purchasers’ Values

The real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Papua New Guinea expanded by 5.3 % in 2015 from the previous year. GDP annual growth rate in Papua New Guinea averaged 5.9 % from 2008 until 2015, reaching an all-time high of 15.4 % in 2014 and a record low of minus 0.3 %.percent in 2008.

In 2015, real GDP as measured in volume of production in 2015 increased higher at 5.3 % compared to lower nominal GDP growth at 0.7 %. The relationship implies that volume of production (real GDP) increased at much higher rate than the nominal GDP growth mainly due to continued falling world commodity prices.

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Gross Domestic Products - National Accounts 2010 - 2017

PNG Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 2010 to 2017

GDP at Current Prices

Current Price GDP for 2017 is 72,522 million Kina, this is an increase of 7,483 million Kina or 11.5% from 2016 Current Price GDP.

Key contributing industries were:

• 3,862 million Kina or 24.9% increase in Mining and Quarrying
    - 2,296 million Kina or 23.8% increase in Extraction of Crude oil
    - 1,566 million Kina or 26.7% increase in Other mining
• 1,180 million Kina or 10.2 % increase in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
• 499 million Kina or 7.9 % increase in Wholesale and Retail
• 373 million Kina or 9.1 % increase in Real Estate Activities
• 326 million Kina or 6.9 % increase in Administrative and Support Services Activities

The main offset to this positive contribution was the Construction with a fall of 296 million Kina or -5.7%.

GDP at Constant Price

Constant Price GDP for 2017 is 63,927 million Kina, this is an increase of 2,184 million Kina or 3.5 % from 2016 Constant Price GDP.

Key contributing industries were:

• 1,574 million Kina or 7.9% increase in Mining and Quarrying
     - 1,013 million Kina or 16.2% increase in Other mining
     - 561 million Kina or 4.1% increase in Extraction of Crude oil
• 224 million Kina or 2.4 % increase in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
• 119 million Kina or 3.5 % increase in Real Estate Activities

The main offset to this positive contribution was the Construction with a fall of 443 million Kina or -10.6%.

FIGURE 1. GDP LEVELS, 2010 to 2017

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The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in levels show a moderate increase in PNG’s economy from years 2010 to 2017 (See Figure 1). The GDP at Current Prices increased from 38.8 billion Kina in 2010 to 72.5 billion Kina in 2017, this is an increase of 33.8 billion Kina or an average annual growth of 9.4% over the reporting period. Whereas GDP at Constant Prices increased by 20.5 billion Kina or an average growth of 5.7%, from 43.4 billion Kina to 63.9 billion Kina, 2010 to 2017.

In 2013, the Current and Constant Price GDP figures are the same. It is the base year for the calculation of Constant Price GDP estimates; thus, the Constant Price estimates are all in 2013 prices whereas the Current Price GDP is valued using the prices prevailing in the respective years.

FIGURE 2. PNG GDP GROWTH, 2010 to 2017

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The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Current Price and Constant Price for PNG showed positive growth for all years (2010 to 2017).

Current Price GDP in 2010 showed that the economy grew by 21.1%, which is deemed to be the highest for this time period and was driven by the construction phase of the LNG project. Current Price GDP in 2014 showed that the economy grew by 19.7% which was the result of the commencement of LNG production.

FIGURE 3. GDP PER CAPITA IN LEVELS, 2010 to 2017

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The level of GDP per capita has increased from 5,493 Kina in 2010 to 8,294 Kina in 2017 in Current Price GDP terms.

FIGURE 4. GDP PER CAPITA, PERCENTAGE (%), 2010 to 2017

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In Current Prices, GDP per Capita level increased from 7,672 Kina in 2016 to 8,294 Kina in 2017 or a growth of 8.1%. In year 2010, PNG recorded its strongest GDP per Capita with an increase of 17.4 % followed by 16.1% in 2014.

FIGURE 5. GVA GROWTH BY INSTITUTIONAL SECTORS, 2010 to 2017

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The graph above details the growth of four institutional sectors: Non-Financial Corporations, General
Government, Financial Corporations and Households.

Non-Financial Corporations Sector recorded a growth of 8.2% in 2016 and 13.2% in 2017. The Non-
Financial Sector highest recorded growth was 31.6% in 2010 due to strong growth in both Construction and
Mining and Quarrying.

General Government Sector has shown moderate positive increases in time over the period (2010 to 2017). The strongest increase was 19.8% in 2011.

The Financial Corporations Sector showed a decline in 2014 and 2015, due to new policies implemented by the Government to the commercial banks to restrict foreign exchange fees and explicit charges.

Household Sector has shown moderate positive increases in time over the period (2010 to 2017). However, 2015 reported a low increase of 3.7% due to the impact of the drought.

FIGURE 6. INSTITUTIONAL SECTOR SHARE, 2017 CURRENT PRICE

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Non-Financial Corporations Sector is the largest contributor with a 59% share, followed by Household Sector 30% , Government 9% and Finance Corporation 2% share to the total GDP respectively in 2017.

Next Release : July 2020