Gross Domestic Products - National Accounts 2007-2014

Overview of Papua New Guinea Economy, 2007 to 2014

Key Features

GDP level

The level of current price GDP increased from 28.3 billion kina in 2007 to 56.6 billion Kina in 2014 while the constant price GDP increased from 37.0  million Kina in 2006 to 53.7 billion Kina in 2014. The current and constant price GDP figures are the same in 2013 as the year 2013 is the base year for the calculation of constant price GDP estimates; thus, the constant price estimates are all in 2013 prices whereas the current price GDP is valued using the prices prevailing in the respective years.

PNG GDP Constant and CurrentPNG GDP Growth

Aggregate GDP At Constant Purchasers’ Values

GDP at constant prices of 2013 grew by an average of 5.8 % over the years from 2007 to 2014. Basically, GDP at constant purchasers prices of 2013 were derived using single price deflation method where gross value added of all individual industries were deflated with appropriate price deflators. Real growth of aggregate GDP in 2010 was deemed to be the highest with 10.1 % which implies and signifies the peak level of production in teams of volume in any one year during the period from 2007 to 2014. The high growth of 12.5 % in 2014 was the impact of first production of the LNG in PNG. Moderate growths were reported for 2012 and 2013 with 4.7 % and 3.8 % respectively.

Over the period from 2006 to 2014, current price GDP increased by 121.7 % and constant price GDP increased by 56.3 %. The current price GDP increased at a greater rate than the constant price GDP as it includes both increases in volume and in prices, whereas constant price GDP only includes changes in the volume of goods and services produce in PNG. For example, in 2008, current price GDP decreased by 0.3 % (only volume increases). The difference between the two measures is prices which would suggest strong price increases in the PNG economy in 2008 of approximately 11.7 %.

For a more detailed description of current price GDP including level and growth by industry, please refer to 2006 – 2013 PNG National Accounts publication released on 23 March 2016.

GDP per Capita increased from 2007 level of K4,399 to K7,099 in 2014 (Figure 3), this equates to an average increase in GDP per capita of 7.3 percent per annum (in Current Prices). There was a decline in the GDP per Capita in 2009 (-1.5) which was an effect of the population (up 3.1%) growing faster than current GDP (up 1.6%). However in the following year 2010, there was a turn around and PNG recorded it’s strongest GDP per Capita with an increase of 17.4 percent.

per capita

Industry Share of GVA

Current Price Estimates
For the period 2007 to 2014, the three highest contributing industries were Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing, Mining & Quarrying and Wholesale & Retail Trade. These three industries together contribute nearly half of PNG’s GDP.

From 2009 to 2013, Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing sector was the highest contributor with Gross Value added (GVA) share of 22.4 percent in 2009, 20.2 percent in 2010, 19.7 in 2011, 20.0 in 2012, 20.0 in 2013 and 18.8 percent 2014. Mining and quarrying, on the other hand, was the highest contributor in 2007, 2008 and 2009 with 26.4 percent, 26.1 percent and 19.1 percent respectively. However, its’ contribution of Value Added fell in 2011 and continued the trend to 2013 where its share was 14.1 percent. In 2014 the industry took over the lead by a massive growth of 322.6% due to the production of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), value added to the industry by K5.4 billion. Wholesale and Retail Trade maintained its’ place as the third major contributor right throughout the period in review. Construction industry and Real Estate Activities followed the similar trends, See Tables 9 and 10 for details of the industry shares of Gross Value Added.

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Gross Domestic Products - National Accounts 2008-2015

Overview of PNG Economy, 2008 to 2015

Aggregate GDP at current prices

The GDP estimate s presented in this publication covers the period from 2008 to 2015. Over this period, the level of GDP increased from K 31.5 billion in 2008 to K 57.1 billion in 2015. This represents an average annual growth of 9.4%. GDP growth has slowed down at 0.7%, value of K 57.1 billion Kina in 2015 from 2014. Progressively, over the period from
2008 to 2015, overall PNG economy experienced positive economic growth annually with a highest increase of 21.1% in 2010, followed by 18.9% in 2014, 11.3% in 2008, and 10.0% in 2011. The lowest increase was in 2015 with 0.7%.

The overall lower growth of 0.7 % in 2015 is attributed to a number of notable adverse events which subsided and affected aggregate production of goods and services across sectors particularly households, non-financial corporations and general government, even though it was the first year of full production of PNG LNG project.

  • El Nino drought affected half of the agricultural food production in the highlands region and part of mining in which OK Tedi mines was temporary closed due to low water level of the Fly river,
  • Temporary closure of Pogera mines due to shutdown of mill processing plant,
  • Temporary closure of Napa Napa oil refinery, and
  • Further declines in international prices of major commodities.

Agriculture sector was badly affected involving both subsistence and market production of agricultural commodities, timber & logs, and marine products for own consumption, domestic sales or for exports. This sector accounted for 19.3% of GDP in 2015 which continually supports more than 80% of the population particularly the rural population. The forestry industry has grown over the years with about 40% of the country is covered with timber rich trees, and a domestic woodworking industry has been slow to develop. Fish exports are confined primarily to shrimp, although fishing boats of other nations catch tuna in Papua New Guinea waters.

constant and current

gdpgrowth

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aggregate GDP At Constant Purchasers’ Values

The real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Papua New Guinea expanded by 5.3 % in 2015 from the previous year. GDP annual growth rate in Papua New Guinea averaged 5.9 % from 2008 until 2015, reaching an all-time high of 15.4 % in 2014 and a record low of minus 0.3 %.percent in 2008.

In 2015, real GDP as measured in volume of production in 2015 increased higher at 5.3 % compared to lower nominal GDP growth at 0.7 %. The relationship implies that volume of production (real GDP) increased at much higher rate than the nominal GDP growth mainly due to continued falling world commodity prices.

Note: TABLES WILL BE PUBLISHED SHORTLY...